TAMING UNCERTAINTY: THE LIMITS TO QUANTIFICATION

Introduction to Uncertainty Quantification

Forward and Backward Uncertainty Quantification in Optimization

This contribution gathers some of the ingredients presented during the Iranian Operational Research community gathering in Babolsar in 2019.It is a collection of several previous publications on how to set up an uncertainty quantification (UQ) cascade with ingredients of growing computational complexity for both forward and reverse uncertainty propagation.

Limits to the quantification of local climate change

Wedemonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes in precipitation.We show that it is nevertheless possible to extract, solely fromobservations, some confident quantified assessments of change at certain thresholds and locations.Maps of such changes, for a variety of hydrologically-relevant, threshold-...

Limits to the quantification of local climate change

Wedemonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes in precipitation.We show that it is nevertheless possible to extract, solely fromobservations, some confident quantified assessments of change at certain thresholds and locations.Maps of such changes, for a variety of hydrologically-relevant, threshold-...

Monotonicity - preserving uncertainty quantification

The need for accurate resolution of shock waves in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is a major driver in the development of robust numerical methods for approximating discontinuities. The Local Extremum Diminishing (LED) robustness concept has, for example, been introduced into the Finite Volume Method (FVM) for preventing overshoots at discontinuities (Jameson 1993). However, LED schemes hav...